You suck at predicting events. All of us do. In fact, there is flourishing industry based on people getting predictions of football matches wrong. Just last week we revealed that football betting is one of the major things Kenyans are doing online Even Kenya’s meteorology department, whose core function is to predict, gets its so wrong so often, that people now anticipate the opposite of what the department predicts. When I began researching for this article, I was looking for Ngunyi’s prediction that went irredeemably wrong. Those that veered off the road, onto the pavement and crushed into cows grazing a kilometer off the road. Yes. Seriously. It would be hilarious to see such a condescendingly cold soul whose every word oozes arrogance fail. If you have read the title, you know already know my mission failed. The man has quite an impressive record. In 2012, he made the infamous “Tyranny of Numbers” prediction. Nowadays, you can find him on Twitter helping the Jubilee Government rinse its linen and making such outrageous observations that I sometimes think the account is run by an impostor. But not to worry. Social media tends to convert even decent humans into jerks. I went where other people do not reach to get you this analysis. Page 23 of Google search result!! For those younger than 20 years, sit back and enjoy the missing chapter of your history class syllabus.
- Kibaki Will not Hand Over Power in 2007
Who doesn’t know how the 2007 fiasco went down? The old man lost and after chanting abacadabra, phantom votes popped out of thin air to bolster his numbers. I am looking at you people from Tharaka Nithi. Then, as the rest of us were wondering what was going on, he swore himself at dusk in the presence of his cohorts. Meanwhile, his rivals were justifiably crying foul play. But what do you do when one team appoints the referee, linesmen, and the governing body; all while playing in the home stadium. Two or three days after the election, it was becoming apparent that even smoking him out of state house would not make the old man give up power.
While ODM and the rest of us had to wait till after election to know that Kibaki had no intention to give up power, Mutahi Ngunyi had already foreseen that. In 2003. Does anyone in ODM read newspapers? This is what Ngunyi said five years before the event: “Who knows how low he (Kibaki) will have sunk by the 2007 elections? And this is what worries me. Consider a hypothetical situation here. What would happen if President Kibaki decided to run for re-election in 2007 and lost? Would he and his men have the grace to hand over power peacefully? From the way they have behaved in the last one year, I doubt it.” Two years after he wrote this article, Kibaki lost a referendum. By 2007, he had sunk so low that anyone with an inkling of political arithmetic knew he would lose. Well, he lost and refused hand over power. Mtado?